UTMB Lottery Strategy

1. The Core Problem UTMB Lottery Strategy Solves

Most teams / athletes / developers fail on racing not because they lack tools but because they skip 3 decision gates. In this article we map each gate with a pass/fail checklist so you can audit your setup in 12 minutes.

1.1 Decision Gate 1 — Baseline Measurement

• Define 3 objective KPIs, not 1 subjective feeling.
• Collect 7 days of baseline before any intervention.
• Record confidence interval (5th/50th/95th percentile).

2. The Step-by-Step Playbook (9 Actions in Priority Order)

1. Freeze your environment / equipment for the length of the test.
2. Introduce only ONE variable each 7-day cycle.
3. Log delta against the 95th percentile of baseline.
4. Reject any change with a negative 5th percentile delta.
5. Document the protocol in one shareable page + screenshots.
6. Ask a teammate to spot-check 10% of the logs.
7. Run A/A sanity test every 4 weeks on the baseline tooling.
8. Hand-off checklist: pre-cond, steps, expected delta, rollback.
9. Archive results to org-wide library + tag with 3 keywords.

3. 9 Common Pitfalls and How to Escape

• The "Hurry" trap: skipping baseline → all deltas look like noise.
• Multiple variables → you never know which caused delta.
• Outlier cherry-picking: quoting best-case instead of P50.
• Survivorship bias: drop-outs not counted.
• Confirmation bias: stopping when delta matches belief.
• Measurement drift: tool / scale not calibrated weekly.
• Fractional attribution math error (100%+ delta explained).
• Small-N: statistically meaningless (<30 runs).
• No rollback plan: bad change cannot be undone in <10 min.

3.1 Priority 1 — What You Can Automate Today

• Data collection, dashboards, and 95th percentile reporting — automatable via Korelyy.
• Spot-check audits, rollback approvals and ethics sign-offs — human gate.

4. Ready-to-Use Template + The Korelyy Tool That Saves 82% of Time

Appendices below contain a 1-page printable PDF checklist, a CSV template, 3 example audit trails, and 5 common test plans for 9 popular verticals. Click the next section tool to spin this up for your team in 3 minutes.